It looks like we’re starting to live through societal collapse in real time. In this past week, we’ve seen the entire air transportation system grind to a halt, the melt down of the most important business communication system, the official return of an infectious disease we eradicated a generation ago, and a tanker ram a docked cruise ship. (That last one took real talent on someone’s part). Societal collapse isn’t an instant. It’s hundreds and hundreds of micro-failures with a loss of the systems that previously existed to repair or correct them and to keep things humming along so that we don’t even notice the problem. What’s next? A prolonged failure of the power grid somewhere? (We’ve had a dry run on that in Texas). A water system unable to deliver potable water to a major urban area? (Ask Flint, Michigan). Air and rail accidents due to failing systems and under staffing? Empty grocery stores due to transportation and distribution problems? None of these would surprise me in the least. They’ll fall heaviest on those who can least afford the burden but the problems won’t spare those who live in gated communities who think that the rules of macroeconomics and social cohesion somehow don’t apply to them and theirs.
I can’t do much about any of these things. I’ve gotten too old, too tired, too grumpy, and so I continue with my optimistic nihilism, determined to smile and enjoy what little life I have left while seated comfortably in this handbasket which is on its way to somewhere. That’s not strictly true. I can vote, and did in the last midterm. The blue wave wasn’t high enough to change a whole lot locally but there was still a good 15-20 point swing away from Republicans towards Democrats in Alabama. If there isn’t some significant change in social and economic policies over the next few years (and change comes hard to Alabama leaders), I think the tide will continue to rise. Especially as there is a significant immigration into the state from the North. Urban Alabama is inexpensive, full of things to do, has relatively mild weather, and is hiring. The newcomers may choose a side in the football wars but are unlikely to adopt the attitudes present in the fraudulent state constitution of 1901 that still trammel us all, and most of them are not of the Southern Baptist persuasion.
Going back to the headlines. The airline ground stop story is becoming clearer by the hour and boils down to the administration having gotten rid of the competence in federal agencies in favor of those who will move forward quickly in blind loyalty and won’t care too much about the destruction they leave in their wake. Rolling out new and only partially tested software across the entire air traffic control system on a Friday afternoon without redundancies or running in parallel with old systems is an invitation to disaster, as any first quarter IT student could tell you. The most interesting thing at the moment is the silence from the administration after that initial disastrous press conference from the Secretaries of Transportation and Homeland Security. To me that says they know they screwed up badly and maybe if they hide, the press will move on. In the meantime, we’re on the third day of stranded passengers and wonky schedules and it may or may not all be sorted out by the time we reach the Thanksgiving travel crunch in ten days. (I’m supposed to be travelling then. I’m not holding my breath). I’m trying to imagine Pete Buttigeg if a similar mess had occurred in the last administration. He would have been issuing routine updates and accepting accountability if his department had made unwise decisions.
In contrast, Microsoft stood up, took responsibility for the recent issues with Outlook. It was related to network capacity upgrades that were rolled out overnight which led to servers going offline which led to automated systems erroneously thinking that they had failed – this initiated a cascade effect. I’m not enough of a technogeek to completely understand it all but it seems to have been dealt with relatively quickly. I have seen some chatter that Microsoft’s reduction in force among their senior engineers in favor of younger employees (mainly overseas) may have had something to do with it. I don’t know enough about that world to want to speculate.
The measles story is tragic as it is completely unnecessary. The US received measles eradication status in 2000 after several generations of consistent use of the MMR vaccine which brought the number of immune individuals up high enough so that the virus, if it popped up, could not spread in the population. Anti-vaccine sentiment, originally a fringe idea on the left wing (Marin county north of San Francisco being the first hotbed in the late 70s and 80s as the anti-establishment hippies morphed into yuppies), and brought into overdrive by the controversies over covid and covid vaccinations has moved into the highest levels of public health policy. Consequently, MMR vaccination rates in the US, which used to hover around 96-97% have fallen to 92% and lower than 90% in eighteen states. Anything less than 95% and we lose herd immunity. The results are more measles cases, more localized epidemics, and ultimately more maimed and dead children. That 95% isn’t some piece of bureaucratic nonsense. It’s science. Measles is so contagious that we have to have numbers that high or it will slip through the cracks. Personally, given current trends, I’m just waiting for polio to make a reappearance.
I’ve seen the video clips of the tanker hitting the cruise ship in New Orleans. We were very lucky that no one was killed or seriously injured. I was raised in Seattle around water and boats and I am at a loss at how one simply rams a tanker into a docked cruise ship unless there was some sort of catastrophic failure of navigation or engine control. Details are sparse at the moment. I don’t expect a lot of transparency given the current state of the Department of Transportation. One of these days, there’s going to be a terrible accident involving one of the cruise behemoths with seven or eight thousand people on board. It’s pretty much inevitable. They’re ships. Ships sink when hubris loses out to physics.
If you’re in Birmingham and have nothing else to do this afternoon, come on out to Eastlake Methodist Church for the last performance of Arsenic and Old Lace at 2:30 PM. After that, I pack away my police uniform and settle in for some relative quiet as I prepare to wind down my clinical time at UAB. Fifteen weeks to go. Who’s counting? *Raises hand in the back*